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The present government is not a popular one, and the majority of Malaysian citizens want to replace it. The peaceful removal of the unpopular party-in-power is opposed by the ministers of the Umno-BN coalition, who claim a right to rule until replaced in a new democratic election.
The prime minister, speaking for the party-in-power, has openly advocated a shift to a dictatorship. Having been installed by a democratic process, it is unseemly that he would now propose to thwart its intent.
In reality the dictatorship is already in place, a view that was the subject of a column on October 31, It's Official, Malaysia Is A Dictatorship. The question now is what is to be the response of Malaysia's people.
Many feel that it is too late, that the party-in-power is too well entrenched to be removed. Others hold a different view. It is well then to examine the forces on each side.
In the historically correct movie Zulu, there is a scene in which the brave young Zulu warriors, armed with only leather shields and spears, rise in unison from the tall grass to bang their weapons and shout battle chants to taunt the barricaded, but badly outnumbered British.
The British, in their colonial manner of good sportsmanship, seize the opportunity to shoot them down. The British officer-in-charge cannot understand what seems to him a meaningless sacrifice. A seasoned old Boar trader points out the Zulu chief on the far cliff. "He is counting your guns," he says. It is important to know just how many guns are in the game.
In Malaysia there are around 85,000 policemen in the national police force. Another 90-100,000 men are in the military. The combined forces in uniform are thus approximately 200,000. All are armed. To the extent the police and military will arrest and kill the discontented people of Malaysia, they are considered to be the enemy.
Malaysia has a population of 22-23 million. A conservative estimate of the population potentially active in a movement to recapture the democracy turned over by the British is about five million. The five million people of Malaysia outnumber the police and the military by a factor of 25-to-one. Put another way, there are over five million people against 200,000.
These are not hopeful numbers from the perspective of the party-in-power. The loyalty of the military and the police is not at all certain at this point. This is another good reason for them to be nervous. The leaders are painfully aware of the basic weakness of their position, and many of their associates have chosen to retire to the sidelines. Every time there is a public meeting the people have another opportunity to count the police.
The police can be brought to a central point for a show of force if there is adequate notice, conveyed there by government bus and truck from distant camps and barracks. In the event there is a large public turnout, the police may use water cannon and riot equipment to disperse and control the crowds. But a concentration in one location betrays the weakness everywhere else.
In the past few months the people have held more and more public meetings to present their grievances to the government ministers. There has been no response. Basically all public meetings to express opposition or discontent are declared illegal. The party-in-power appears willing to risk mounting public displeasure in an effort to give the appearance of strength. The public is not fooled, and the Umno leaders must begin to make concessions or the people will become more and more forceful in their demands.
The MTUC has called for a nationwide strike, with emphasis placed on the "nationwide." If the strikers are not concentrated, that means the police and military cannot be concentrated against them. The imbalance in numbers will be obvious. The fundamental weakness of the party-in-power will be revealed to all. That is why the government will go to any lengths to prevent a general show of discontent on a nationwide basis.
The MTUC has called a nationwide strike to protest the waste of the EPF funds. To this list might be added the other funds controlled by the prime minister and the finance minister. Even the Tabung Haji fund is involved, using the public's money to fund questionable mega-projects, and to bail out the companies owned and controlled by the leaders of the party-in-power.
The EPF has almost ten million members, all of whom are concerned about the safety of their money. They want an accounting from the fund managers, and they want it now. If there is no satisfaction in the next few days, there is to be a nationwide strike. Ten million members is a large number, and there is no way the combined police and military can intimidate or arrest them.
This is what the conspirators are afraid of. It is on this very issue that they must yield. There is no choice. The true story of the share and loan losses will become known. When the people of Malaysia become fully aware of the enormous losses to their EPF fund, they will be angry. Very angry. That is why the nationwide strike is to be avoided at whatever cost. The leaders of the MTUC are in danger of being arrested under the ISA, in hopes this will forestall the strike. The people, however, will see this and recognize the tactic for what it is, a display of the fundamental weakness brought about by the imbalance of numbers.
Fauzi has asked politely that Anwar Ibrahim be sent to Germany for treatment of his injury. The implication is that a Beserah by-election follows a refusal. To the list of names of those making this humanitarian appeal let there be added another ... that of Harun Rashid.