Bakun: The Missing Feasibility study
by Harun Rashid
Jan 16, 2001

History abounds with predictions of failure: man will never fly, pictures cannot be sent through the air, a man will never walk on the moon. All these statements were made and generally believed a short time ago. That they all happened in one generation is astonishing. One hesitates to say a thing cannot be done.

That which is possible must follow the inescapable laws of the universe. These are the bounds which cannot be transcended. To determine what these limits are we call on the engineers, who are trained to assess the strength of materials and the forces to be tamed. The engineers communicate their findings to us by means of the feasibility study. When engineers prepare such a study, it is well to pay heed.

Malaysia, for all its boasting, has constrained itself to that which can be accomplished, albeit at exorbitant cost. Good roads have always been a novelty in the tropics, as anyone with experience building the Burma Road can attest. Things have not progressed much in the past half century, though Malaysia now has some good roads by local standards. The engineering has not required originality or creativity, relying on established practice.

The buildings, however, are another matter. The architecture is amazing, worth a visit by anyone. The use of materials is both utilitarian and aesthetic, and everywhere one sees examples of man's creative instincts and the striving for beauty. The sidewalks are tiled, much as in Portugal and other European countries, and the use of geometric patterns is a continuing delight to the eye. There is no city in the world where glass, ceramic, steel and concrete are combined into such magnificent forms. All this in surroundings of lush tropical greenery is a surprise and a delight. Engineering makes such structures possible.

By a fluke of history, the island of Borneo contains two of the eleven states of Malaysia; Sabah at the north end, with Sarawak bordering it to the south. Borneo seems a strange place to build a huge dam. The justification for a dam is generally to provide a reservoir of water for irrigation and consumption, with industrial demand another important consideration. The generation of hydroelectric power is another factor which may justify the expense of building a dam, and weigh somewhat against the environmental damage that dams inevitably cause.

In Borneo there is no shortage of water. It rains almost every day. There is no significant industrial demand, and what is planned does not require a dam the size of Singapore. The dam, however, is to be built anyway, with the generation of surplus electric power as the justification.

Electricity is not a commodity that is easily stored. If it is not utilised as it is generated, it is wasted. In the absence of significant demand the electricity to be generated in Borneo is useless. The cost of the dam is a major consideration for a country the size of Malaysia, so the question arises as to the real purpose for the dam. Since it is the brainchild of the prime minister, he is the one to ask. But he is not talking. When pressed, he mumbles something about development, which usually means a family member or friend is going to get a big piece of the national oil money and some federal land (and its timber).

There is in the overall plan a scheme for transporting the electricity to an area in which there is demand. Unfortunately this is a long way away, in peninsular Malaysia. As the term suggests, there is a great expanse of water between Borneo and the mainland. The water is deep and rough. The South China Sea is notorious for its typhoons. Sturdy towers to carry overhead transmission lines are prohibitively expensive.

The option, then, is to lay cables on the floor of the sea. These cables have the misfortunate limitation of obeying the physical laws of the universe. The engineers who look at the technical difficulties of transporting electricity such a distance under the open ocean have not found it feasible. At least they have not made such a report public.

Certain facts are apparent. Electricity always obeys the laws of the universe, and unless the prime minister has found a way to change things, the picture looks extremely doubtful for the sucessful surmounting of this challenge.

First there is the problem of resistance in the conductor. Resistance causes loss. The resistance is additive; the longer the cable, the greater the resistance, hence the greater the loss. Too much loss and there is nothing left to come out the end. Alternating current at very high voltage can reduce this loss, but the losses are still a very big consideration.

Sea water is a conductor of electricity, and thus the cables must be insulated (waterproof), and be able to maintain this water tight integrity for enough years to pay the cost. There must be no maintenance factor. The cables must be 100 percent reliable for enough years to make their installation economically practical. But there is no company which has come forward to manufacture and supply such cables. Furthermore, there is no engineering company with experience in such a project. There is no engineering firm on record as having written a feasibility report which suggests that such an undertaking is technically possible.

The technical difficulties have been presented to the prime minister personally. He chooses to ignore these as too negative. For him there must be a way. For guidance he relies on his own intuition, backed by the public's money, to proceed. The prime minister substitutes his own training in science (medicine) for that of experienced engineers. He proceeds on this enormous project in the absence of any feasibility study. He is completely on his own.

The public, however, is putting up the money. They are entitled to a feasibility study.


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Write to Harun Rashid: harunrashid@yqi.com

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