"Yes. Why?"

"What you think of the events?"

"Somewhat amateurish."

"What do you mean?"

"Poor training. Poor training."

"What are you talking about?"

"Poor training. Everywhere, everywhere ... poor training."

"Please Ahmad, be more specific."

"OK, but it is difficult to know where to begin. It is all so troubling."

"Are you emotionally involved?"

"I am trying not to be."

"Well, go on ... what do you mean by 'poor training'?"

"Hmmm ... where to begin. The demographics are all ... so disheartening."

"Ahmad, please .. you have to start somewhere."

"Well, the police were a big disappointment."

"Why?"

"They are supposed to be trained in traffic control, isn't that right?"

"Yes, certainly. What about it?"

"It was a mess, that's what."

"What do you mean by 'a mess'?"

"Traffic jams ... snarls ... gridlock ... hours of delay."

"What happened? Weren't they prepared? There was advance notice that thousands of people would be going to Klang."

"It's hard to say. But it is clear that the police need more training. As a Muslim I am ashamed of them, most of them are Muslims."

"What does that have to do with it?"

"Well, a Muslim is primarily supposed to serve Allah, isn't that right?"

"Yes."

"Allah tells us to do good, and oppose evil, right?"

"Yes."

"Well, the police are serving someone else. That is troubling. Very troubling."

"Do you mean they need moral training?"

"Certainly. Along with basic traffic control."

"Isn't Umno supposed to be giving moral instruction?"

"That's a joke, isn't it? Umno also needs training. They aren't qualified to provide moral instruction to anyone, especially not to Muslims."

"Ahmad, that is very harsh."

"I am trying to be fair. It is difficult to be objective."

"That's because you are emotionally involved."

"Yes. No matter how hard I try, I keep getting drawn back into the simple facts of the matter."

"Go on ... what else went wrong?"

"Well, the traffic flow was the worst, but the police caused most of the problem. They were supposed to be directing traffic, instead they were deliberately impeding it."

"How?"

"They had roadblocks everywhere. They stopped every car, and backed up the traffic for miles. If they were actually trying to create the problem they couldn't have made it worse."

"What else?"

"They were frightening in their funny outfits, not suitable for traffic control, or even crowd control. They were not being helpful, in fact, they were doing just the opposite."

"How?"

"They were shooting water from fire trucks onto the people and cars. There was no fire. What was that all about?"

"Why did they do that?"

"They seemed to think it would help clear the roads, as though they thought the cars would melt or something."

"Did it help?"

"No, it just made things worse. The fire trucks contributed to the jam, and their actions were not only stupid to behold, but they made the rakyat angry. That is not the Malay way of doing things. Many of the people were dressed in their best kenduri clothes."

"These were Muslims doing this?"

"Yes. It is so disheartening. Especially when you consider it is their fellow Muslims the police are mistreating. Their own brothers and sisters, members of their own family, many from their own kampung."

"So you think training will improve things?"

"Certainly. The police are given orders by headquarters. So it is the willingness to obey the people at the police headquarters that is the problem."

"Maybe it is the headquarters that needs training."

"My point exactly. They all need more training, top to bottom."

"What else?"

"I had a sad feeling, seeing the police getting angry. They began to actually hit people with their clubs. When the people tried to run away, the police chased them and clubbed them to unconsciousness. Then they caught some of the people, they hauled them away in trucks to the police station, where they were refused the services of an attorney."

"Surely the police aren't that bad."

"It is sad. The portents are not good, especially when you consider the demographics."

"What do you mean?"

"Ali, these people are not your simple Umno kampung folk, influenced by years of Umno politics and watching Umno TV. These people are the best Malaysia has to offer. And the police are alienating them. Many watched as the police went from car to car breaking their windows out, breaking their headlights out. Do you think there will be any chance for a quick reconciliation after this?"

"No, even Muslims have a limit to their patience. What do you think it means?"

"My views are clouded by what I've seen, but the numbers seem to give some objectivity."

"What numbers ... what do they say?"

"Ali, there are about 23 million Malaysians. If you take about 50% away as being too old or too young to be much of a factor, that leaves around 12 million or so in the active arena, politically and economically speaking. Take about half of these away as being neutral,and that leaves around 6 million people who really make a difference in the daily affairs of the country. These people determine what happens in the future."

"If I agree with your numbers, and I am not sure that I do, what do they tell you?"

"It doesn't matter if the figures are high or low, what matters is that a lot of them, more than half, now see the BN coalition government as not 'people friendly' anymore. The BN coalition government cannot train the police in traffic control and crowd control. Shooting tear gas onto the toll roads from helicopters in order to clear traffic makes a bad impression on everybody."

"What do you think these numbers mean for Malaysia?"

"There are two things happening simultaneously, and both appear negative at the moment."

"What are they?"

"The first is the foreign effect. Foreigners have begun to see the BN coalition government as lacking in training, and the reaction of the people is seen as de-stabilising to the situation. This means that foreigners will be dissuaded from entering Malaysia, either as tourists or investors."

"Is this bad? The BN coalition ministers say they don't want foreigners."

"Ali, how can they be sincere in this? Everyday we read of how desperate the government is to attract both tourist dollars and investment dollars, in the stock market, the bond market and in venture capital. There is also the total commitment to recapture the foreign direct investment, which has essentially disappeared. Even now, the battle is shifting from attracting new firms toward keeping the firms who are already established here. Many are giving notice of closing up shop. That is very negative."

"What about the internal factor?"

"The retreat of the foreign capital forces the BN coalition to adopt a policy of internal financing. When new money is required it must be sought within the country, and the resources of Malaysia, on a do-it-ourselves basis are rather limited. Malaysia cannot buy itself back on the stock exchange, nor provide support for government spending through bond sales."

"How do demographics enter into the picture?"

"If the all people who were sprayed with water, hit with clubs, arrested, and then found their car windows smashed ... if all these people go home and tell their neighbors about this ... the number of disaffected people is enormously magnified. These people are now willing to bring about change in any peaceful manner possible, and they now have every incentive to find ways of doing that."

"Such as?"

"They now know that they can create a traffic jam anytime they want to, anywhere they want to, just by calling for a meeting. The major arteries are now subject to closure. Nothing can move, no lorries, no buses, no cars. Letting the air out of car tires will just make the matter worse."

"And?"

"The disaffected people will soon let it be known that they can stop any enterprise in the country in the same way. They can announce a meeting at KLCC and stop all economic activity there, or at any other mega-mall whenever they like. This knowledge is powerful, and will be noticed by everyone with something at stake."

"Do you think there is that much irritation in the country?"

"I'm afraid so. Before, the Chinese opted for a known evil, and made money from the BN coalition government without questioning the morality. Now the Chinese are uncomfortable with the manner in which the Muslims are standing up for what is right, in demanding truth and justice. The Chinese are being forced to take sides, and more and more they are joining the Muslims in building a front against a common enemy. The Indians are also becoming an important factor, especially those in positions of leadership or able to challenge for leadership."

"Ahmad, are you talking about demographics, or are you talking about politics?"

"Both, actually. It is difficult to exactly separate them, because they are intertwined."

"So, Ahmad, what is your overall objective appraisal of the situation ... negative or positive."

"For the moment negative. But things could change."

"What things could change?"

"Sarawak could go to the BA coalition in the coming state elections. That would be the end for the BN. Sabah and Sarawak hold the key to keeping the shaky thing together."

"And?"

"New Chinese leadership could take over MCA, and leave the BN. The number of Chinese able to support the BN is getting smaller by the day. That would make a big change. Penang is already hanging by a thread."

"Yep. And there is to be a by-election there soon. What else?"

"The pm is faltering. He doesn't read well anymore, and this is noticeable. I think he is looking at Indonesia very carefully, planning for an acceptable exit. Everyone in his cortege is selfishly anxious to keep him in the picture, and they all know that one day it will become more than he can manage. It might be soon, who knows? Things would change a lot then."

"Ahmad, do you think the change will be peaceful?"

"Yes, Malaysians are not unruly, even when aroused, but it depends ..."

"Depends on what?"

"Training. More training for the police."

"What else?"

"Training. More training for the judges."

"Anything else?"