For the first three months of this year, the total manufacturing sales value was RM 71,660 billion, down 10.9% from the 1Q of 2001 (RM 80,298 billion). That means we are off track for zero growth by RM 8,638 billion, which must be made up in the next three quarters if we are to have another year of next to zero growth, using the 1987 figures as a basis.

Using current purchasing power figures, the 2001 GDP was RM 332,651 billion, a decline of -2.4% (RM 8,055 billion) from the 2002 GDP figure of RM 340,706. The government hesitates to use this negative result out of concern for possible adverse effects on foreign investment. So the 'real' figures from 1987 are used instead, which allows a slim growth of 0.4% to be reported.

In the calculation of total indebtedness, expressed as a percentage of GDP, the current figures are preferred, because using the higher GDP figure reflects a lower level of public debt. It appears to be a case of selecting whichever number gives the best overall picture for the situation under analysis. It is the same for calculating the budget. Using the 1987 GDP of RM 210,188 billion, a budget deficit of RM 25 billion seems disastrously large at 11-12%; but when the higher figure (RM 332 billion) is used, the budget deficit is suddenly only 7-8%, giving an appearance of greater fiscal restraint (but not much).

The total state and federal debt of Malaysia (which must include a large but unknown contingent liability of private debt, made necessary by the de-privatisation policy of the government) now approaches 100% of the GDP in real 1987 terms, yet no one in the government seems capable of addressing this very serious situation. Every day or so, more money is borrowed to keep the economy afloat. The debt keeps rising, and the national financial condition becomes shakier by the month. Someday soon, the water must come over the gunwales.

The major companies of Malaysia, many operated directly from the Prime Minister's Department, are not reporting results accurately. Accounting practices in Malaysia make the executives of the Enron affair in the US look like truant school boys at play. Comparisons with Argentina before the bust are apt, and the PM's groveling attempts to cajole the US into a rescue, using their Osama Bin Laden problem as bait, will not succeed. Though the US seems sadly mystified by the tall tales told to them about terrorists in SE Asia, they will eventually wake up, to recoil with a vengeance when they finally discover what game is afoot.

The March manufacturing figures surreptitiously include fifteen new establishments, and the results have not been corrected to reflect what contribution this addition has made to the results. The number of employees is also up over February 2002 (5,559), though again the number of workers employed by the fifteen new firms in the survey is not separately reported. Perhaps the statistics department staff will find means for adjusting previous reports to reflect what comparative graphs would look like once the necessary revisions are incorporated.

If the manufacturing sales value contributed by the fifteen new firms significantly alters the picture, an analysis made using the official statistics is erroneous. Certainly any inadvertent error in the official government statistics will be rectified as soon as this possibility is brought to their attention. If no significant change occurs by excluding the fifteen new firms, where is the explanation for adding them at this critical time?