External trade peaked at RM 64 billion per month at the end of September 2000. It declined to the neighborhood of RM 50 billion and was steady throughout 2001, but now the downward trend has resumed.

As stated in an earlier article, Feb 27: External Trade 2001 vs 2000, this is cautionary. The optimistic projection by the Bank Negara on March 21, that "Exports will grow at 4.4% while imports are likely to rise by 4.8%." thus appears premature.

In the absence of substantiating raw data, the anticipation by the central bankers of an improved level in economic activity, construed as "recovery," appears to be a mirage, politically motivated.

This critical view is prompted by the continuous stream of unrealistic estimates made for the past two years, always followed by a fatuous downward revision.

The inability or unwillingness of the central bank to prosecute officers of the government who attempted to use US$ 5 billion in counterfeit Malaysian government bonds as collateral for a loan from a London bank contributes to a perception that there is lack of candor. If the full faith and credit of the government cannot be defended from corruption within itself, what is left of national creditworthiness and honour?

There is no credibility left. A smiling team portrait does not replace objective factual reporting of dependable and recent raw data. This is the only credible foundation for credible and realistic forecasting.