The world is concerned with the military capability of Iraq. Many wonder why this is a pertinent issue. We presume that the inner aspects are too sensitive to be made public, and we are content with Ariel Sharon's desires. He wants first Iraq, then Iran to be disarmed and occupied. He feels they threaten Israel. He has his reasons, and territorial ambitions are part of that. He wants the US to carry the major weight of battle. The US seems eager to provide the service. The oil under Iraq certainly tempts any country addicted to it. We are pasrah, placidly paused for the plot to proceed, willing to wait, wistfully wondering if all plays out as planned.

While the world's attention is thus distracted, perhaps one can review the earlier subject of terrorism. One definition is an act of mayhem and/or murder in furtherance of a political objective. Those who commit such an act are the terrorists of the above title. The acts committed, the acts threatened, and the potentiality for further acts are too broad for brevity. A writer could make a living (many do) outlining its various aspects; terrorism past, terrorism threatened, terrorism to come. There must be limitation. This is an essay, not a book length feature, so only tourism is the subject, defined as non-commercial travel and all its associated activity.

The first thing noticed is that non-business travel is very sensitive to acts of terrorism. People avoid vacationing to the venue of a bomb blast, and this aversion results in deep disruption of tourist travel to those regions. There is a further far flung fright factor following a big explosion, such as the Bali bomb blast.

The terrorists of Bali say they intended to create a tumble in tourism. They were successful in two things, (1) the immediate cancellation of travel tickets to Bali, and (2) the creation of an apprehension of harm in the mind of anyone considering tourist travel anywhere in the world. Basically, this is the general plan of the terrorists, to generate with each act a present punishment and a longer lasting apprehension of future harm.

The tourism industry includes the various means of travel: airplanes, boats, railroads, and automobiles. The tourists must be housed and fed, so hotels and restaurants are included. Entertainment sites such as beaches, casinos, national monuments, national parks, and theme parks are tourist destinations. Buses and taxi's are also part of the tourist industry. When people are afraid to travel, all of these businesses lose revenue. When sales go down it becomes more difficult for operators to continue in business.

Airplanes flying scheduled routes leave and arrive on time, even if only a few seats are filled. A few days after the Bali bombing, airplanes leaving Denpasar carried as few as five passengers. This level of sales is poor pay for the flight fuel. Eventually laggard flights must be rescheduled at reduced frequency or cancelled all together. When a route is removed from its schedule, it is parked, and generally, it stays parked.

Airlines that have decreased seat sales keep their planes parked, though the monthly payment for purchase or lease must still be paid. If there is not enough revenue from the routes still carrying a paying load, the airline loses money. If costs are not reduced quickly and efficiently, the airline is forced into bankruptcy. Many have already declared they are unable to find a way to continue, and have filed for protection from the courts.

When an airline files for bankruptcy, all its parked planes generally become part of the supply of used airliners. The parked planes have difficulty finding buyers, and the price is depressed because there is an over-supply. Airplane leasing companies are forced to foreclose on the airplanes, and these planes are then added to parked planes on offer by the airlines.

Bankrupt airlines do not buy new planes, and the market for new airplanes is depressed by the glut in used planes on the market at low prices. Airplane manufacturers are faced with forced cancellations, reduced sales, and often must accept return of airplanes recently delivered. The manufacturers are forced to dismiss employees, decrease the rate of delivery, and make immediate preparations for a period of depressed business conditions. Failure to make an adequate adjustment results in the failure of the firm.

Because the sale of aircraft represents a large portion of the export trade of manufacturing countries, the loss of aircraft business means a large increase in the trade deficit. When imports are not balanced by exports, the unbalanced trade represents a drain on the resources of the country. In the case of the US, this drain is significant, and the monthly figures largely reflect a loss in airplane deliveries by Boeing and other manufacturers.

Though great emphasis is placed on sales incentives and pressure on other countries to buy military aircraft and other military equipment, the trade deficit continues to widen. The deficit must be met by borrowing, and the source of the borrowing is mainly from other countries. It is important that confidence in the ability of the US to repay the interest and capital on its borrowings is maintained.

At one time, the US had a virtual monopoly on the manufacture of commercial airplanes. That is no longer true. Today Europe has its competing models, as do the Russians. There is also vigorous competition for military aircraft, and the economic dominance of the US aircraft industry is no longer what it was just a few decades ago.

For each country, there are domestic airline routes and international routes. The countries can largely control the sales of domestic seats within the country, giving preference to local carriers, but the allocation of international routes is subject to contractual agreement, and usually there are additional economic factors in the form of reciprocity agreements, landing, fueling, maintenance, and other fees which tend to limit the potential for excess profits. On domestic routes the seats may be filled, but if prices must be adjusted downward to match the local economy, the net income per seat for each kilometer of travel fails to match the international rate. Domestic routes are frequently subsidised.

The effect of terrorism is likewise severe on the hotel business. All profit centers of a hotel suffer when the room occupancy rate falls. Often the response is to close the upper floors, letting only the lower floors. Kitchen and other staff must be reduced, and the general level of service falls, because while the variable costs can be reduced, the fixed costs remain. In a difficult period such as the present, new hotel construction decreases, and there are many hotels that are halted, sometimes indefinitely. Unfinished hotels dot the skylines of most Malaysian cities, and for many of these dark concrete shells there are no plans for completion. They remain as hollow skeletons, victims of unfortunate circumstances. The money invested in these projects remains questionable as to eventual recovery.

Will the tourists return, that is the question. When a country depends on tourism for much of its foreign income, the loss of the tourist dollar is a serious threat to its economic well being. Mahathir made a mistake when he converted his political opponents into terrorists. This was done in an unsuccessful effort to conceal the arbitrariness and injustice of the Internal Security Act, which allows the indefinite arrest of political opponents and holding them without representation or trial, has effectively ruined Malaysian tourism. Western countries have now identified Malaysia as a haven for terrorists, because of its own malicious mischief.

The strategy of making terrorists of its prisoners, along with the insanity of concocting a phony theft of army rifles by an innocent martial arts group, has backfired on Malaysia and its Prime Minister Mahathir. Of Mahathir's many mistakes, this decision to voluntarily become a terrorist country is the most costly, and the consequences of this political misjudgment will haunt him and his party into the far future.

Today, in an effort to correct the misapprehension, Malaysia invites US forces onto its territory. This decision, trying to restore the tourist trade, is done at a great political cost. It is seen as the delivery of the country into the hands of Israel's ally. To a Muslim, deeply conscious of the history and plight of the Palestinians, this is an unforgivable affront. If there were no terrorists in Malaysia before, there is sufficient anger to recruit an army of them now. The US, aware of the situation, has issued travel warnings to its citizens to avoid Malaysia.

The irony is clear. There is no credible evidence of terrorist activity, only unsupported allegations by Mahathir's captive judiciary and police. Thanks to the mistakes of Mahathir, the US predicts there will soon be a terrorist event. Thus, Malaysia has the unique distinction of losing its tourist trade, being blamed for being a terrorist country, and suffering the consequences of that, though the Muslims of Malaysia have committed no acts of murder or mayhem. Mahathir and his UMNO party, guilty of concocting false evidence whenever their political strategy calls for it, have outsmarted themselves, and now Malaysia pays the price.

Returning for a moment to the terrorist threat, we must wonder at the US tactical thinking, diverting all its efforts to an invasion of Iraq, while the terrorists continue their successful worldwide campaign to undermine the economies of the US, Israel and any other country that allies itself against the Palestinians. Even if Iraq, Iran and North Korea are conquered and occupied, the terrorist threat remains. The US boasts that it is hated because it has "freedom." A coalition is sought to defend this nebulous "freedom," while its disgusting foreign policy remains indefensible.

A successful coalition must include the terrorists. This is because the number of terrorists worldwide is already in the millions (and growing). They operate as a guerrilla force with a deeply shared ideological motivation. Because they are diffuse and hidden, the use of technology and military force is futile. Territorial conquest only puts them behind the lines. Defending islands of pacification only presents concentrated static targets.

It is Vietnam multiplied by a factor of millions. General MacArthur cautioned against a land war in Asia. His words have a new and broader meaning in today's context. There is a frustrating mentality that is not amenable to rational acceptance or evaluation of simple facts. This mentality is marked by gross ignorance bolstered by a stubborn intransigence. Some refer to this mentality as a case of "basic stupid." Bringing reason to such a person is a hopeless pursuit. It is not difficult to find examples in present world leaders. The worst scenario is to have arrogant children in possession of superpower weapons. Where are they leading us? To paraphrase the poet, "Into the valley of death rode the six billion."

But that is another story.