Where is the evidence for a nuclear threat? The world wants to see Iraq test a nuclear device. In the absence of a test, a nuclear program is considered immature. Skeptics might be convinced if furnished with neutral expert opinion, from nuclear scientists with bomb-making knowledge. Preferably, they should come from Pakistan and India. It is most probable that the nuclear threat of Iraq is still mild, though the capability for a full menace in future might be real enough to justify the risks of preemptive action now.
Chemical and biological weapons are a real threat, though old stocks were destroyed. The leadership of any country that accumulates thousands of tons of botulin toxin has at least the potential of being found pathologically, criminally insane. To the barrels of botulin must be added other nerve toxins and lethal chemicals that were used in the Iran war. The unused supplies were stored. According to UN ex-Inspector Ritter, these stores have all been destroyed, along with any ability to prepare fresh supplies. For the present, so the argument goes, the threat has been removed.
No scientist with experience in chemical and toxicological warfare would agree that Iraq poses no future danger, simply because extremely powerful toxins are readily available from natural sources. Though preparing these hazardous materials for use in a war does require great skill in collecting, handling and delivery, a large-scale industrial capacity for mass production is generally deemed unnecessary. A great deal of mischief can be cooked up in a small house, as any consultant on terrorism will tell you.
While the world today is focused on the debate surrounding the necessity for a regime change in Iraq, another danger, less apparent, escapes the notice of world leaders. The Earth is drying up. The land areas of the Earth have become a giant desiccation chamber. The amount of water available to animals and plants is decreasing. The water cycle is not cycling as it has in the past, and the consequences of this dramatic climate change threatens the Earth's ability to support animal and plant life. The irony is that while the debate on use of toxins in warfare is being held, the auditorium in which the debate is being held is becoming lethally toxic.
A decrease in normal rainfall is regarded as an irregular occurrence. Drought is a common phenomenon. Few think it is caused by human activity. Rational adjustments and allowances are made for these dry periods, with every expectation the average of past decades will return. No one openly suggests that the present period of drought is a natural consequence of larger factors, and, as such, presages a new emerging pattern that, unfortunately, is likely to be permanent.
Animal life for herbivores is supported by plant life, and carnivores make do with eating the herbivores. A few gourmets, such as us, enjoy both animals and plants as dietary staples. All life is inter-related, and all life requires water. If the amount of water available decreases, it is a problem for everything. Ancient scrolls tell of a previous destruction of the Earth by flood, with a warning that the next destruction will be a fiery one. If this prophecy is correct, it seems the pilot lights are already lit.
When the water supply fails, or comes in copious quantities at the wrong times and in the wrong places, plants suffer and dry out. Grass, fodder for grazing animals, doesn't grow. Crop plants do not develop fruit. The decrease in supply drives food prices upward, while the price of grazing animals suffers because increased numbers of animals are slaughtered to avoid the high cost of feeding them through the winter. The longer-term price for domesticated livestock tends to increase as herd numbers fall, though demand remains relatively constant. Drought, in general, means reduced amount and variety of food, at higher prices. These price changes are a natural consequence of reduced water supplies. Watch for them in the market nearest you.
In dry weather, leaves and branches of trees and scrubs begin to wither and turn brown. Dry leaves and branches make good tender, and the number of fires tends to increase, simply because they are easier to start and more difficult to extinguish. Once started, whatever the cause, the fires scorch the adjacent vegetation, soon spreading in all directions. The heat of the fire creates a strong up draught, and any incidental wind contributes to a raging wildfire. More of these wildfires are in evidence today. In addition, fires in dry timber tend to last longer and cover more area.
Rainfall is absorbed by moist soil more easily than by dry, parched soil. When rainfall is absorbed, it is stored in underground reservoirs and streams. It is kept in the soil near where it falls, available for use by animals and plants. Rainfall that is not absorbed runs off over the surface, and in periods of heavy rainfall, this surface water causes streams and rivers to overflow. The resultant flooding is typically regarded as an "act of God," and while there is often appreciable loss of life and property, few connect it to a larger man-made phenomenon.
Development covers the surface of the Earth with houses, buildings, parking lots, and roads. These surfaces are impervious to absorption, so the rainwater predominately runs off over the surface. This runoff contributes to flooding while it fails to refill the groundwater reserve. No one blames development, which is a human activity, for the flooding. Certainly, no one expects the floods to return for many years. Once the floods are more regular, higher, last longer and affect more areas, people may begin to wonder if human activity might be a causative or contributing factor.
We have known for decades that glaciers all over the globe are retreating. Lakes and seas are drying up. The race is on to build new dams and reservoirs in order to maintain water supplies to developed areas. Rivers and streams that feed reservoirs are drying up, not only because there is less groundwater to feed the streams and rivers, but also because rainfall is less frequent. Also, more water is taken from the bank as it flows, for agricultural and industrial use. As the population of the Earth increases, more fresh water is needed. Peculiarly, it does appear more water is available. A large piece of the Antarctic ice shelf broke away this year, and is melting into the greater mass of seawater. This water, previously captured as ice, is not expected to be replaced in coming years.
Thus, there is more water in the oceans, and the level of the oceans, immense as they are, is rising. High tides are getting higher, and low-lying areas are subject to more flooding. Some islands are disappearing. When water stored at the poles and in high mountain areas, as ice and snow, is not replaced, the water cycle is diminished. Although there is more water in the oceans, that is where it stays. Believe it or not, the water cycle is just not what it used to be.
As the Earth warms, the rate of desiccation will increase. The drying out of the vegetation will become more pronounced. Marginal agricultural areas will be retired from production. Grazing lands will support fewer animals. Ocean temperatures are rising, and this contributes to a higher evaporation rate. The natural expectation is that there would be increased rainfall. Instead, what we are seeing are irregular patterns of rainfall, where prolonged periods of drought are interspersed with intolerable deluges at unpredictable times.
Trained scientists studying this phenomenon have given warnings of the impending danger for several decades. They measure the annual increase in the ozone hole at the poles, and note the temperature rise in the oceans. The increase in temperature is associated with the pollution of the air by man's activities, especially pollution originating in the United States and Europe.
Those in political authority often choose to believe that these phenomena being observed and measured around the world are not man-made. Waiting for what they deem conclusive proof, they still refuse to participate in any effort to reduce the known causes. The deterioration of the air is a well-studied subject, but many of the developed countries, led by the United States, refuse to agree that greenhouse gases make a significant contribution to the problem.
The present meeting in Johannesburg, as previously in Kyoto, challenges major world leaders with the latest facts. For the most part, they remain unconvinced. There is wrangling and discord. Instead of a cooperative spirit to candidly and honestly evaluate the existing evidence, there is interminable debate and discussion. Rather than an attempt to recognise and gauge the danger, the sessions pit the concerned environmentalists against the industrialists, whose position seems generally designed to avoid responsibility and thus justify a refusal to take remedial action. They await more proof, and they are certain to get it.
President Bush looks no further than the November elections, and stirs the people toward an Iraq war to garner war fever votes, but the larger and more important issue is whether we will all have an inhabitable home. When the certain costs and consequences of the desiccation of the Earth are totaled, the threat from Iraq seems about as important as the imagined danger that Mohammed Ali will become a cult hero to Muslims in America.
President Bush, deciding his attendance at Johannesburg is not important, prefers to raise campaign cash for his party. Everywhere he goes there is abundant evidence of desiccation: drought, water rationing, wildfires, floods, and air pollution. For this year at least, he can pretend man-made factors do not underlie these climatic events. He can deny and deny, but the events themselves confront him, and the people most affected by the events await him. As a politician, trying to be popular, he cannot forever ignore the parched land, the burned timber, and the smoke-filled air.
If he does, the people will pull him from his ignorant and self-serving podium. In Malaysian terms, he will be "toppled." For the people to be able to legally and peacefully remove incompetent or criminal officers, and then replace them with honest and capable leaders, that is the real test of a democracy. It does not exist in Malaysia, nor in many places throughout the world. Much remains to be done.
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