One wonders why Iraq is such an imminent danger to the US. It is the object of a purposely-generated war fever, and in spite of every rational argument against it, Bush and Cheney insist there is a dire need for an immediate (impulsive?) pre-emptive attack. No credible evidence is given. It is not difficult to find a reason; a number of factors are available for consideration. But which is the real one?
Longer term is the geographic-cultural factor. Iraq is situated in the middle of a direct line of Islamic influence that extends from Western China to Morocco. Two of the countries on this line are members of the "Axis of Evil." Western China has just been added to the "enemies list." The line of Islamic influence is broken only by Israel.
For two decades, Iraq has been used to prevent Iranian (Islamic) expansion toward the Mediterranean. During the eight year Iraq-Iran war, Iraq was a buffer against Iran. After the war, when Iraq attempted to appropriate Kuwaiti oil fields in order to pay its war debts, the US decided the concern of Islamic expansion was outweighed by the more immediate threat to Persian Gulf oil. Thus, Iraq-the-ally, became Iraq- the- evil-enemy, re-establishing the unbroken geographical line of Islamic influence.
Israel is used to construct a point of weakness in the line. During the Gulf War, the entry of Israeli forces threatened survival of the (Arab) coalition, so Israel prudently restrained its military. Iraq sent SCUD missiles into Israeli towns that killed civilians and damaging buildings. The US hastily sent Patriot anti-missile defenses to Israel. Israel has not forgotten.
Today Iraq offers to supply the Palestinians arms, and gives aid to victims of Israeli incursions in the occupied territory. Israel is determined that outside arms are not to be delivered into either Gaza or the West Bank. This explains the wanton destruction of the new Palestinian airport and the presence of warships off the coastline of Gaza.
Palestine has no planes, no tanks, and no army. Iraq does. Thus Israel fears Iraq, with its thousands of tanks, planes and missiles. Iraq is the only open ally of the Palestinians, so Israel calls on the US to invade Iraq to remove this threat. Only the threat of US retaliation keeps this Israeli-Iraq feud from erupting. Should Iraq find a route for delivering anti-helicopter and anti-tank rockets to the Palestinians, the Israeli's would be forced to withdraw from the occupied territories.
In an ironic turn, if the US supports Israel by an attack on Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran will potentially support Iraq with their US manufactured arsenals. These armaments were sold to countries in the Middle East to partially offset the trade imbalance created by oil purchases. The arms dealer is again forced to fight armies he trained and supplied, a replay of Afghanistan.
There is the oil factor. Iraq has substantial oil resources. The repeated call for a regime change in Iraq intends to replace Saddam Hussein with a friendly head of state that will guarantee the West access to Iraqi oil. The countries where a regime change is most desired are Afghanistan, Venezuela and Iraq. All are important factors in the supply of oil. The US, as the biggest oil consumer, is naturally, concerned about access to oil, vital to its economy.
Then there is the election factor. The war on terrorism has not been successful, in that the perpetrators of the 9-11 attack have not been found and killed or arrested. Billions of dollars have been spent, thousands of lives have been lost, yet the threat still exists. The inability of the US administration to restore a sense of security to the US public, in spite of enormous effort and wholesale disregard of the freedoms enshrined in the US Constitution, is a political negative.
In November the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election, along with one third of the Senate. The Republican party is under great pressure to show some improvement in its performance in its self-declared war on terrorism. A war against Iraq would create a sense of 'support the leader' that would bring needed votes in November.
Finally is the corruption factor. The US system of corporate management suffers a lack of confidence. Every day brings a new revelation of backroom dealing designed to defraud the public shareholder, and enriching management. Corporate shares are seriously eroded in value, and much of the public feels cheated of their pension funds. The shift of oversight from the public, the foundation of a democratic system, to executives who have usurped economic power and enriched themselves, is seen in both the corporate and political arenas.
There is widespread distrust in a corporate-political collusion involving public policy, and improprieties in the way public utilities and resources are managed. Bush and Cheney are involved in the oil/energy business. Both have benefited from this business relationship. Discussions regarding the design of public energy policy are being concealed from investigators. The usual defences of 'executive privilege' and 'national security' are again being put forward, to the distrust and repugnance of a disillusioned electorate. Their pensions are gone. Corporate executives have kept millions (billions?). The angry voters want blood. Politicians have no immunity.
There are allegations of wrongdoing and involvement in the Enron collapse. Investigations are stalled. Present indications suggest both Bush and Cheney have committed offenses deserving impeachment. It is an offense to interfere with legal investigative procedure. Nixon made this mistake. From a US administration point of view, these charges must be delayed or deflected at any cost, being careful to avoid obstruction of justice, and what better way to do that than to start a war.
Thousands of civilians have been killed in Afghanistan, with unknown thousands more injured and displaced. Millions live in fear of irresponsible US action. The question is, how much more mayhem and murder must occur in the Middle East (and elsewhere) before these political and economic ambitions are satisfied?
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