The video tapes being shown on CNN each night reveal an unknown, and disturbing sophistication in making explosives from common materials, or so the expert hired to evaluate the tapes said. His surprise that anyone outside approved circles had knowledge of simple chemistry shows an attitude of disdain and disrespect typical of those who feel force and technology are sufficient to perpetuate an unjust and unpopular policy.
Osama bin Laden has made it clear that a war is declared. He announces it in as formal a manner as his resources allow. The reason this war is deemed necessary is clear; he and his associates are fed up with US policy in the Middle East, and as in the memorable words of Howard Beale/Peter Finch in the movie Network (1976, 4 Oscars), "We aren't going to take it any more." He announces that the US and Israel are the enemy, and the treatment of Palestinians and Iraqi's, primarily the women and children, is the main factor. A Muslim prays each day to know the Will of Allah, and asks only for the strength and courage to carry that out. The peace and serenity of Islam comes from total submission to this Will. Allah's Will for a Muslim is to do good and fight evil. Osama interprets as a call to fight for defenseless Muslims, and in this, he devotes all his energy. He gives all his assets, and is prepared to die in the fight.
The war is to be a guerrilla war, and Osama and friends are conducting it according to the ancient rules of that style. Israel and the US, having been dramatically informed they have a floating and hidden opposition, have responded in the typical fashion of the colonial oppressor, intent to wrest control of coveted land from its rightful owners. Relying on conventional firepower, more cannons are rolled in, and innumerable volleys are fired in the direction the guerrillas went.
The ground is taken, and occupying forces remain to hold it. An acceptable form of government is installed, and sufficient forces are kept in place to keep them honest. All this activity the guerrillas watch, and wait for opportunity. The occupying forces know there is opposition, and constant alertness is necessary, not only to shield the newly installed government, but also to protect the troops and equipment. At some point, to the outside observer, the war is over, and superior technological forces have prevailed. Might make right. Realpolitik.
The nature of guerrilla war is that it is never over. That is because guerrilla war is ideological in nature. The theory of defeating the present forces to win doesn't work. Cutting down the big trees only allows sunlight to reach the smaller ones, and the grass. Building prisons for everyone sounds like a solution, but to be successful, everyone must be imprisoned indefinitely. Alternatively, everyone must be killed.
Vietnam was a guerrilla war, and there were lessons to be learned. The first lesson is that if you don't speak the language, you really can't know what is going on, not on your side, and not on the other side. The second lesson is that you don't know which side the locals are on. They all look alike, and there is no way to distinguish friend from foe. When men go out to kill under these conditions, very often the wrong people are killed. These mistakes make long-term relations difficult.
The third lesson is that guerrilla war is financially expensive. One reason is that guerrillas corrupt local allies, easily buying arms and other supplies as needed. For the foreigner, it is expensive in material and men, because men cannot be left alone in the open. Defensible enclaves must be built, and these must have minimal amenities. It is expensive in the corrosive effect it has on the home front, and troops must be routinely rotated out. New trained troops must be brought in and familiarised with the conditions and the terrain.
The fourth lesson is that guerrilla war requires time. There is interminable waiting while the guerrilla forces tend their sheep, raise their opium crop, carry on their lives, knowing that time is on their side. They lose nothing by waiting, while the foreigner must continually inject fresh assets into the fray. In a guerrilla war, ten years is like a day, and the guerrilla forces know instinctively that eventually victory will be theirs.
The fifth lesson is that the guerrilla's have the advantage of choosing the place and time for action. This element of surprise forces the more conventional combatant to be always on the defensive. After a guerrilla strike, at some unprotected point, there is always frustration and anger brought on by impotence. Conventional forces flail out at the enemy's civilian population, destroying houses, wantonly killing women, children and the elderly. All moral justification becomes lost, and the war enters a phase of brutality that is difficult to maintain against the repugnance and active opposition of home support.
There are new lessons to be learned, now that the guerrillas target urban areas. The first new lesson is that there is no defense. There is no defense against a combatant willing to commit suicide in his attack. Israel is slowing awakening to this important fact. The US still cannot equate the WTC pilots with the Palestinian suicide bombers. To the Israelis every non-Jew is a potential guerrilla warrior, intent on carrying out an attack.
They are required to be suspicious of everyone, because in Israel everyone looks like a Jew. In order to surmount this problem, workers from Thailand are being brought in to replace Palestinians, on the theory that they, as identifiable non-Muslims, are more trustworthy. Many Thais, however, are Muslims, and many of those Thais who are not are sympathetic to the Palestinians. The Muslim Palestinians can recruit the Muslim Thais to join their ranks as guerrilla fighters.
The second new lesson is that it is dangerous to believe Western society has superiority in native intelligence and academic skill. A developed country is a vulnerable country. Every structure, every infrastructure, can be reverse engineered for its weaknesses. These weaknesses are readily exploited by any guerrilla agent intent to create terror. No chemicals, no elaborate equipment is necessary to do great harm. It is easy for anyone to give a sample list, but doing so invites tragic emulation. The point is that absolute defense against a resolute guerrilla agent is impossible.
A third lesson is that guilt of immoral acts, even when covered by the rubric of war, lingers in the population long after the event. Those who kill are themselves killed. Men may be trained to kill, but this training destroys the humanity of the soldier. Having once lost touch with conscience and emotions, the trained killer can turn readily from one target to another, even his own family. Such is the price of those who go out to kill.
Other Western countries are not made targets in this war. The US is singled out for its foreign policy. The best way to end this war is for the US is to immediately enter into a re-examination of the basic causes of the present conflict. For racially oriented Israel, it is perhaps too much to ask, but for the US, there is time. In guerrilla war, there is always time. Prisons are being built for men to be held incommunicado. Big trees are named for felling. Each day the grass is growing ... the grass is growing.
The best way to conquer an enemy is to make him a friend. To do that requires courage, to acknowledge past mistakes, and modify objectionable behaviour. It is painful. But there is time ... there is always time.
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